[Spridgets] Carlisle forecast

[Ron Soave]

Not to question the weather pooba, but the local weather hag told me it meant
that the given or predicted atmospheric conditions, the conditions have
historically yielded measurable rain 30% of the time those conditions have
occurred. 

Incorrect?

Ron

--- On Tue, 5/18/10, Jim Johnson
<bmwwxman at gmail.com> wrote:

> From: Jim Johnson <bmwwxman at gmail.com>
>
Subject: Re: [Spridgets] Carlisle forecast
> To: 
> Cc: "spridget"
<spridgets at autox.team.net>
> Date: Tuesday, May 18, 2010, 1:41 AM
> Not quite,
Dean...  Take it from
> a 41 year forecaster (now retired). A
> percentile
forecast not only encompasses the probability of
> rain at a given
> location
during the entire 12 hour forecast period, but
> also the percent
> *coverage*
of rainshowers at any given time within that
> area. That is to
> say, the
forecast means a 30 to 40% chance of rain falling
> somewhere in the
>
forecast area at any given time.
> 
> To be more succinct, the 100% rain
falling on Frank
> throughout his journey
> to Carlisle will be 30-40% of the
entire area. So to Frank
> it will seem like
> 100% rain because the clouds
will be following him where
> ever he goes!  Just
> stay away from Frank and
you will remain relatively dry!
> 
> Trust me. We had a 10% chance for rain at
Lake of the
> Ozarks. That 10%
> followed Frank there and we got it all during
the car
> show!!
> 
> There are good reasons why we call Frank "Rain Man". 
>
Part of the reason is
> due to the weather!   ;-)
> 
> Cheers!!
> Jim
> 
> On
Mon, May 17, 2010 at 10:54 PM, Dean Hedin <dlh2001 at comcast.net>
> wrote:
> 
>
> Oh come on.  It's only a 30 percenter.
> >
> > In Pennsy talk that means
Sunny with a few
> clouds...practically gorgeous.
> >
> > The forecaster's are
only covering their buts in case
> it actually
> > rains, as even they can't
believe a 21 out 22 year
> record of rain on this
> > date.
> >
> > I'm
plannning on just the Saturday.
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From:
spridgets-bounces at autox.team.net
> > [mailto:spridgets-bounces at autox.team.net]
> On Behalf Of Frank Clarici
> > Sent: Monday, May 17, 2010 10:50 PM
> > To:
Kevin Valentine; spridget
> > Subject: [Spridgets] Carlisle forecast
> >
> >
Looks like rain for the 21st out of my 22 years going
> there.
> >
> > Friday
Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
> Mostly cloudy, with
> > a low
around 56. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
> >
> > Saturday: A chance of
showers and thunderstorms.
> Mostly cloudy, with a
> > high near 77. Chance of
precipitation is 30%.
> >
> > Saturday Night: A chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
> Mostly cloudy,
> > with a low around 56. Chance of
precipitation is 40%.
> > --
> > Frank Clarici
> > Toms River, NJ
> > Lots of
Sprites
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> 
> --
> Cheers!!
> Jim
> In my many years I have come to a conclusion that
one
> useless man is a
> shame, two is a law firm, and three or more is a
>
congress."
>        John Adams
>        US diplomat &
> politician (1735 -
1826)
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