[Spridgets] Carlisle forecast

Jim Johnson bmwwxman at gmail.com
Tue May 18 00:41:04 MDT 2010


Not quite, Dean...  Take it from a 41 year forecaster (now retired). A
percentile forecast not only encompasses the probability of rain at a given
location during the entire 12 hour forecast period, but also the percent
*coverage* of rainshowers at any given time within that area. That is to
say, the forecast means a 30 to 40% chance of rain falling somewhere in the
forecast area at any given time.

To be more succinct, the 100% rain falling on Frank throughout his journey
to Carlisle will be 30-40% of the entire area. So to Frank it will seem like
100% rain because the clouds will be following him where ever he goes!  Just
stay away from Frank and you will remain relatively dry!

Trust me. We had a 10% chance for rain at Lake of the Ozarks. That 10%
followed Frank there and we got it all during the car show!!

There are good reasons why we call Frank "Rain Man".  Part of the reason is
due to the weather!   ;-)

Cheers!!
Jim

On Mon, May 17, 2010 at 10:54 PM, Dean Hedin <dlh2001 at comcast.net> wrote:

> Oh come on.  It's only a 30 percenter.
>
> In Pennsy talk that means Sunny with a few clouds...practically gorgeous.
>
> The forecaster's are only covering their buts in case it actually
> rains, as even they can't believe a 21 out 22 year record of rain on this
> date.
>
> I'm plannning on just the Saturday.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: spridgets-bounces at autox.team.net
> [mailto:spridgets-bounces at autox.team.net] On Behalf Of Frank Clarici
> Sent: Monday, May 17, 2010 10:50 PM
> To: Kevin Valentine; spridget
> Subject: [Spridgets] Carlisle forecast
>
> Looks like rain for the 21st out of my 22 years going there.
>
> Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with
> a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
>
> Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a
> high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
>
> Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy,
> with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
> --
> Frank Clarici
> Toms River, NJ
> Lots of Sprites
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--
Cheers!!
Jim
In my many years I have come to a conclusion that one useless man is a
shame, two is a law firm, and three or more is a congress."
       John Adams
       US diplomat & politician (1735 - 1826)


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