"Michael R. Clements" wrote:
> We have had 4 autocrosses so far, in 3 of which it rained. The
> probability to get rain on all three of these days is 0.3 * 0.3 * 0.3 =
> 0.027.
But that would be the probability it would rain on those
three specific days (without considering Boondoggle one way
or the other). The probability it would rain on at least three of
four events (using your 30%/event) would be 8.4%. Such a start
to the season could be expected every 12 years or so. It doesn't
snow in Sacramento in March very often either.
> Can anybody explain what is happening? Is there some phenomena going on
> causing it to rain on every event this year?
I'm sure we can figure out a way to blame one or more of
the Kelly's if we try hard enough. :-)
Rich Urschel
.3^3*.7*4 + .3^4 = .0837
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