Probably because it was supposed to rain. Oh and I washed my car the day
before every event. So it's all my fault. Sorry guys.
Elton
SM #68
In a message dated 4/5/2002 11:58:39 AM Pacific Standard Time,
kkelly@spss.com writes:
> It didn't rain at the Boondoggle.
>
> Katie
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Michael R. Clements [mailto:mrclem@telocity.com]
> Sent: Friday, April 05, 2002 11:54 AM
> To: Autocross
> Subject: rain -- again? what's going on?
>
>
> In S.F., the average inches of rainfall for Jan, Feb, Mar are 4.4, 3.2 &
> 3.1. Assuming one day of rain is about 0.4 inches on average, that is 11
> days, 8 days and 7.75 days of rain in these months, historical average.
> Total average days of rain for Jan-Mar is 26.75. Total days is 90.25
> (counting Feb as 28.25 for leap years). Thus, a rough average
> probability for any given day from Jan to March to have rain in S.F. is
> about 30%. It's a bit lower for Oakland & GGF.
>
> We have had 4 autocrosses so far, in 3 of which it rained. The
> probability to get rain on all three of these days is 0.3 * 0.3 * 0.3 =
> 0.027. Thus getting rain on all three of these days is only 2.7% likely.
> And that's if they are all in SF. Some were in GGF and Oakland, which
> get slightly less rain, so the probability is actually a bit lower.
>
> Furthermore, now it looks like rain tomorrow morning on the school. This
> further reduces the probability to a number so small that it stretches
> the limits of credulity to imagine that it has occurred naturally.
>
> Can anybody explain what is happening? Is there some phenomena going on
> causing it to rain on every event this year?
>
> Michael R. Clements
|