On 5/11/06, Frank Clarici <spritenut@comcast.net> wrote:
> So Jim, can we count on rain in Carlisle, PA 5/19-21?
> I mean Carlisle is the only reason I have a top and side curtains.
> Rain 16 out of 17 years one day or all 3.
Sorry to have missed all the meteorological abuse of the past 12
hours. I have been out driving the Midget with a British friend who is
a visiting travel writer and novelist. (Eat your heart out suckers!!)
Anyway, I've started looking through the long range forecast tools for
Frank's annual "Great Flood at Carlisle" outing. At present, I have
to say any kind of accurate predicition for rain at Carlisle is nearly
impossible as the computer ensembles are wildly different. Perhaps
they will settle down as they close in on the proper solution within a
couple of days. And... perhaps not.
You see, I am a relatively rare creature among weather men. I am
honest and will tell you straight out if an accurate predicition is
even possible that far in the future. At present, it is not. I don't
care what your TV talking heads are saying - they lie out of
convenience. It keeps their paycheck coming in because most people
don't actually keep track of their forecasts and hold their feet to
the fire. If they did, you'd see a lot more hedging in their
forecasts. They'll give you a forecast 3 months in advance because
they know you won't write it down, verify it, and then hold them
accountable for a bad job.
I will continue to watch the situation at Frank's request (and any
other outings anyone wants watched - let me know) and will post
updates from time to time as things become more clear cut. For now,
however, Frank's climatology forecast (rain 16 out of 17 years) and
Paul A's Farmers Almanac are probably as good as any forecast you are
going to get.
Cheers!!
Jim - Prognosticating Midget in Dodge City
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