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Re: FF2000 performance analysis

To: Jim and Rose Ann <garryj@localnet.com>
Subject: Re: FF2000 performance analysis
From: Tyson Sawyer <tyson@j3.org>
Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2004 16:37:32 -0500
Jim and Rose Ann wrote:
> Well .... all cars have a class in Solo II.   It's just that some are 
> competitively classed and other aren't.   The vast majority of 
> uncompetitively classed cars are in those straits because they would be 
> too fast for the lower class and too slow for the higher class, thus 
> they are conservatively classed into the faster class.

The question is how do you determine "how fast" a class should be?  How 
are these arbitrary thresholds picked?  I really have no idea how its 
done in spite of trying to figure it out over the last 7 years of 
autocrossing.

One extreme answer is, don't.  Every rule set gets its own class.  I.e. 
  FF1600, FF2000, FA, DSR, etc, each get their own class.  This has the 
obvious problem of too many classes with only 1 or even no cars.

If one car type/class can't work, then we need policies for mixing 
types.  Though others might know of other methods, I think there are 
generally 3:

1 - Run head to head, so be it.
2 - handicap the cars for equality
3 - Index their times (PAX)

All 3 methods are imperfect.  The first method will leave some cars 
uncompetitive and results will be partially dependent on course design 
and conditions.

The 2nd and 3rd methods attempt to make all cars competitive but still 
suffer course and condition dependencies.  Additionally, the 
handicapping or indexing is subjective.  Some engineering can be 
applied, but it is far from perfect.

I believe that Stock and Street Prepared use method 1.  Prepared and Mod 
classes use some form of method 2.  Many local clubs (including the one 
that I organize) use method 3 so that people don't have to compete in a 
class of 1.

I'm not saying that classes with more than one car type are inherently 
bad, but only saying that there are "issues".  Some people enjoy and 
embrace these issues.  The challenge of winning with a car that is 
slower or perceived to be slower than "the car for the class" can be 
part of that enjoyment.

My personal preference is for single car types in a class where 
practical.  The thought of loosing by 0.01 to a Corvette while driving 
an RX7 and feeling that the course design was strongly in favor of the 
Corvette is VERY unappealing to me at a 2 course National Championship. 
  ...though I'd have to admit that I'd enjoy a win under the same 
conditions that much more and I very much enjoy PAX classes where the 
competition is otherwise thin and the stakes are low.

Assuming that we don't lump all cars into a single class using one of 
the 3 methods, we need a method to group them.  In general it would make 
sense to have a grouping policy that favors desirable car types.

In the current context it might be worth mentioning that the point is 
that the FF2000 may be a good example of a desirable car (I'd agree) but 
also point out that IMHO a FF2000 that is castrated to be as slow as a 
FF1600 is no longer desirable.

So, how do we decide which cars are most desirable and theoretically 
going to create the most successful classes?  This is very difficult 
because what defines a desirable car is different for each person.  The 
only subjective method I can think of is to simply count the number of 
drivers in each car type.  But even this is flawed because a car that is 
classed unfavorably will be less desirable to many people.  Again, the 
FF2000 may be a good example of this condition.

We also need to provide stability.  The process of choosing the most 
desirable class can't result in constant change.  However, things 
shouldn't be set in stone to the long term detriment of the sport.

What I'm about to say is sure to upset someone, but I believe that there 
is a valid point to be made.  Please keep in mind that the comparision 
is relative to what a theoretical, does not exist, FF200 class might 
look like.  Please take it as a relative comparison and not an absolute 
statement:

When compared to what a FF2000 class _might_ look like, an important 
section of the BM grid looks a lot like a bunch of unique, expensive, 
obsolete solo specials. Cars that you won't find anywhere else.  I could 
imagine that several years after the creation of an FF2000 class, it 
_might_ be significanly larger than the current BM class.   ...it might 
be bigger than the current CM class.

So, what is the policy for giving FF2000 a chance?  What mechanism is used?

What is the policy for obsoleting favorable status for other cars?  What 
time period represents unstability and what time period represents 
fossilized status quo?

In trying to consider my own reaction to changes in my own class, I'd 
probably be upset over sudden significant changes with-in the next 4 or 
5 years (consider that I JUST joined the class and just bought my car 
this past season.  I've got a lot of paying to do still.).

If, however, a statement cameout that FF2000 would be considered for 
being moved to CM in its full normal GCR configuration 2-3 years from 
now and that the movement would occur 1-2 years after that then I would 
plan accordingly and feel that I had been given fair warning.  Doesn't 
mean I'd like it, but that would seem like fair long term planning for 
the success of the sport.  ...I'd actually probably argue that FF1600 
and FF2000 might both be successful each in their own class and that 
some other class should do the "suffering" if no new classes where created.

How about a policy of picking a car that might improve the success of 
mod classes to get its own new class from time to time.  It might be 
"Club FA", it might be DSR, it might be FF2000.  Which class it is isn't 
the point.  The class is evaluated for elimation a couple of years 
later.  A couple of additional years later one class is chosen for 
elimination based on participation levels.  If the new class was 
successful it won't be the one elimated.  The class isn't eliminated for 
at least 2 more years, at which point the cars in that class are 
reclassed, but less favorably.  That was 6 years from the creation of 
the new class to the elimination of the "least successful" class.   You 
can play with the intervals and what defines successful at each point, 
but the idea is a combination of sensitivity to demand, opportunity for 
potentially successful cars, and stability without fossilized status quo.

I should also mention that IMHO, AM and SS should be special.  Any car 
that counts as series produced should be permitted to run in SS and SS 
should never be eliminated for insufficient participation.   AM is 
similar.  It is the pinical of our sport and we should be proud of it 
even if there is only 1 car in it.  ...IMHO.


A mostly pointless side note:
-----------------------------
I looked at where CM finished relative to BM in 2003.  BM places 1 
through 4 finished ahead of CM.  Tommy was about 1.3 seconds per day 
ahead of CM.  BM 5th place would have been 2nd on CM (or Mark would have 
been trophied 5th in BM).  The rest of BM (6th and down) would have been 
13th and down in CM (CM places 2 through 11 finished between BM 5 and 
6).  Though none of the CM class had any chance of winning in a combined 
BM/CM class, most of the same people would have recieved trophies, even 
those from CM.  I don't recall how much temperatures or other conditions 
might have been a factor.

Cheers!
Ty

-- 
Tyson D Sawyer
    46CM '85 Reynard 85F  "The Red Headed Stepchild"
   118AM '72 Tui Super-V  2002
    37DS '98 Neon ACR     1997-2001

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