[Healeys] Another sign that we are all doomed not Healey

Fri Jul 9 19:25:50 MDT 2021

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On 7/9/2021 5:39 PM, Laurie Wilford wrote:
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> -------- Original message --------
>
>     From: llennep--- via Healeys <healeys at autox.team.net>66uf67çx
>
> Date: 2021-07-09 3:06 p.m. (GMT-05:00)
> To: healeys at autox.team.net
> Subject: [Healeys] Another sign that we are all doomed not Healey
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>
>
>   How Software Is Eating the Car
>
>
>     The trend toward self-driving and electric vehicles will add
>     hundreds of millions of lines of code to cars. Can the auto
>     industry cope?
>
> By Robert N. Charette <https://spectrum.ieee.org/author/robert-n-charette>
> Predictions of lost global vehicle production caused by the ongoing 
> semiconductor shortage 
> <https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-Spotlight/How-the-chip-shortage-got-so-bad-and-why-it-s-so-hard-to-fix> continue 
> to rise. In January, analysts forecast 
> <https://www.business-standard.com/article/automobile/world-s-biggest-automakers-suspend-operations-as-chip-supplies-dry-up-121032400488_1.html> that 1.5 
> million fewer vehicles would be produced as a result of the shortage; 
> by April that number had steadily climbed 
> <https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/latest-numbers-microchip-shortage-pickups-taking-bigger-hits> to 
> more than 2.7 million units, and by May, to more than 4.1 million 
> units 
> <https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/plants-big-worry-missing-demand-because-chip-crisis>.
> The semiconductor shortage has underscored not only the fragility of 
> the automotive supply chain 
> <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-semiconductors-supply-chain-ins/auto-industry-rethinks-cost-cutting-playbook-as-covid-19-chip-shortages-disrupt-supply-chains-idUSKBN2BO4ZW>, 
> but placed an intense spotlight on the auto industry’s reliance on the 
> dozens of concealed computers embedded throughout vehicles today.
> “No other industry is undergoing as rapid technological change as the 
> auto industry,” says Zoran Filipi, Chair of the Department of 
> Automotive Engineering at Clemson University’s International Center 
> for Automotive Research <https://cuicar.com/>. “This is driven by the 
> need to address impending, evermore stringent CO2 and criteria 
> emission regulations, while sustaining unprecedented rate of progress 
> with development of automation and infotainment, and meeting the 
> customer expectations regarding performance, comfort, and utility.”
> The coming years will see even greater change, as more auto 
> manufacturers commit 
> <https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g35562831/ev-plans-automakers-timeline/> to 
> phasing out their internal combustion engine (ICE) powered vehicles to 
> meet global climate-change targets 
> <https://www.automotiveworld.com/news-releases/growing-momentum-global-overview-of-government-targets-for-phasing-out-sales-of-new-internal-combustion-engine-vehicles/> by 
> replacing them with electric vehicles 
> <https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g29994375/future-electric-cars-trucks/> (EVs) 
> that will eventually be capable of autonomous operation 
> <https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/levels-of-autonomous-driving-explained>.
> The past decade of ICE vehicle development illustrates the rapid 
> progress it has made, as well as where it is heading.
> Chart titled Vehicle production shortfall due to chip shortage.
> “Once, software was a part of the car. Now, software determines the 
> value of a car,” notes Manfred Broy, emeritus professor of informatics 
> at Technical University <https://www.tum.de/en/>, Munich and a leading 
> expert on software in automobiles. “The success of a car depends on 
> its software much more than the mechanical side.” Nearly all vehicle 
> innovations by auto manufacturers, or original equipment manufacturers 
> (OEMs) as they are called by industry insiders, are now tied to 
> software, he says.
> Ten years ago 
> <https://spectrum.ieee.org/transportation/systems/this-car-runs-on-code>, 
> only premium cars contained 100 microprocessor-based electronic 
> control units (ECUs) networked throughout the body of a car, executing 
> 100 million lines of code or more. Today, high-end cars like the BMW 
> 7-series with advanced technology like advanced driver-assist systems 
> <https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a31880412/adas/> (ADAS) may 
> contain 
> <https://www.embitel.com/blog/embedded-blog/automotive-control-units-development-innovations-mechanical-to-electronics> 150 
> ECUs or more, while pick-up trucks like Ford’s F-150 top 150 million 
> lines of code 
> <https://cmte.ieee.org/futuredirections/2016/01/13/guess-what-requires-150-million-lines-of-code/>. 
> Even low-end vehicles are quickly approaching 100 ECUs and 100 
> million of lines of code as more features that were once considered 
> luxury options, such as adaptive cruise control 
> <https://www.motortrend.com/news/adaptive-cruise-control/> and 
> automatic emergency braking 
> <https://www.motortrend.com/news/automatic-emergency-braking/>, are 
> becoming standard.
> Additional safety features that have been mandated since 2010 like 
> electronic stability control, 
> <https://mycardoeswhat.org/safety-features/electronic-stability-control/> 
> backup cameras 
> <https://abcnews.go.com/US/cars-us-now-required-backup-cameras/story?id=54854404>, 
> and automatic emergency calling (eCall) 
> <https://etsc.eu/automated-emergency-calling-ecall-now-mandatory-on-new-car-models/#:~:text=Automated%2520emergency%2520calling%2520(eCall)%2520now%2520mandatory%2520on%2520new%2520car%2520models,-April%25203%252C%25202018&text=All%2520new%2520models%2520of%2520car,the%2520event%2520of%2520a%2520collision.&text=The%2520system%2520was%2520launched%2520on%2520Android%2520phones%2520in%25202016.> in 
> the EU, as well as more stringent emission standards 
> <https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_Euro6-VI_briefing_jun2016.pdf> that 
> ICE vehicles can only meet 
> <https://autotechreview.com/opinion/guest-commentary/how-software-in-automobiles-helps-curb-pollution> using 
> yet more innovative electronics and software, have further driven ECU 
> and software proliferation.
> Consulting firm Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 
> <https://www2.deloitte.com/global/en.html> estimates that as of 2017, 
> some 40% of the cost of a new car 
> <https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/cn/Documents/technology-media-telecommunications/deloitte-cn-tmt-semiconductors-the-next-wave-en-190422.pdf> can 
> be attributed to semiconductor-based electronic systems, a cost 
> doubling since 2007. It estimates this total will approach 50% by 
> 2030. The company further predicts that each new car today has about 
> $600 worth of semiconductors packed into it, consisting of up to 3,000 
> chips 
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/23/business/auto-semiconductors-general-motors-mercedes.html> of 
> all types.
> Totaling the number of ECUs and lines of software only hints at the 
> intricate electronic orchestration and software choreography found in 
> vehicles today. By observing how they perform together, the 
> extraordinary complexity that is meant to be invisible from a driver’s 
> perspective begins to emerge. New safety, comfort, performance and 
> entertainment features, the commercial imperative to offer scores of 
> options to buyers resulting in a multiplicity of variants for each 
> make and model, and the shift from gasoline and human drivers to 
> electric and artificially intelligent drivers and the hundreds of 
> millions of lines of new code that will need to be written, checked, 
> debugged and secured against hackers, are making cars into 
> supercomputers on wheels and forcing the auto industry to adapt. But 
> can it?
>
>
>       Features and Variants Drive Complexity
>
> The drive over the last two decades to provide more safety and 
> entertainment features has transformed automobiles from mere 
> conveyances to mobile computing centers. Instead of racks of servers 
> and high-speed optical interconnects, ECUs and wiring harnesses 
> communicate data throughout the vehicle and beyond. And then there are 
> the 10s of millions of lines code that run every time to you go to the 
> grocery store.
>
>
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