[Fot] To Consider Before you Race

[John H. Hasty]

IMHO?

Sent from my iPhone

On May 22, 2020, at 4:22 PM, J Wagner via Fot <fot at autox.team.net> wrote:


I’m sorry Ken, IMHO, you’re way off base.


“....Covid is killing people in all age groups, no one should consider themselves ‘low risk’.  This virus is like playing Russian Roulette with an automatic....”

That describes the Covid-19 that the early models were describing, but those models were wrong and have been discredited.

Yes, in fact, some people can consider themselves “low risk” and no, it’s not like playing Russian Roulette at all.  And it’s certainly not like playing it with an automatic.

If one is elderly, particularly those with underlying issues, sure, they should play it safe.  And anyone with an underlying issue should weigh the risks and watch out for themselves.  The rest need to get on with their lives.

The flu didn’t stop vintage racing.

“If people die at the current rate of 5.9% then....”

That “current rate” is not sustainable so your supposition is not based in reality.  The curve doesn’t just happen in a day when we cross a threshold, it happens slowly as we reach herd immunity.

And weather is proving to be significant as the southern hemisphere faces their fall and numbers are rising there.  We’re heading into our Summer!


<image1.png>

Let’s all take a reality pill here.

<image1.png>


You said, “We are all big boys and girls and we get to make our own decisions.  I think this decision should be made on sound medical science and fact, not what we would like to have happen. “

Yes.  So enough with the “russian roulette with an automatic” analogies.   That’s gross hyperbole, not science.

It’s a bad bug, but we go on with life, just as we always have with the various threats that face us every day.

What’s the stats for race car drivers getting hurt or killed?   What’s the stats of sports fans being hit by lightening?  What’s the stats on dying from pneumonia?  Car accidents?  Going to an ATM late at night?

Yet we all get on with our lives.

—Justin








On May 22, 2020, at 10:26 AM, Kenneth Knight via Fot <fot at autox.team.net<mailto:fot at autox.team.net>> wrote:

The CDC just announced today that 35% of Covid cases are asymptomatic.  It appears you can spread Covid 19 and not know you are sick.  What if you are one of those folks that then go home an give it to your family?

As of today there 1.61 million cases in the US with deaths at 95,213 or a death rate 5.9%.  Over this weekend we will pass 100,000 dead.

Covid is killing people in all age groups, no one should consider themselves ‘low risk’.  This virus is like playing Russian Roulette with an automatic.

It is clear that the US national strategy is to open up and either get a vaccine in 18-24 months or achieve “Herd Immunity” which requires some 60-70% of the population to have lived through being sick in order to develop antibodies against the virus.

The numbers needed to get to Herd Immunity roughly require 200,000,000 Americans to have had the virus.

If people die at the current rate of 5.9% then some ±11,000,000 people would perish in getting to Herd Immunity.  Even if better treatments and the demise of very high risk people cut the death rate to just 1%, we would see some 2,000,000 people die of Covid.

Someone once said that if wishing were so, pigs could fly.  You can cross your fingers this going to get better in June in the Midwest but all the indications are quite the opposite.  We opened the country in mid May to varying degrees (not right or wrong, just fact) and infection rate numbers and death rates are likely to significantly rise in June.  It takes a couple of weeks before people start showing up sick at their locale hospitals.

We are all big boys and girls and we get to make our own decisions.  I think this decision should be made on sound medical science and fact, not what we would like to have happen.   I have a couple of good doctor friends, until they are willing to go back racing after what they are seeing in their hospitals, I will not return to the track as much as I want to.  I wish all the very best of luck.

Ken
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