[Fot] 144th KENTUCKY DERBY

[Bill]

I started paying attention to horse racing and some other forms of gambling when it became obvious to me that for some gambling forms there are enough data points available to be predictive to a degree. I started looking at what would be required to win frequently enough to make a profit after the house takes their cut. I’d say it’s feasible and I’ve learned enough about machine learning to think the process of picking and refining performance could be automated. Let the software learn with fake bets until it’s steadily making a profit. Then go live. You’d need a crew to place all the bets since the analysis needs to run until a few minutes before a parimutuel race happens. If I wasn’t so lazy I’d do this. 

> On May 3, 2018, at 9:12 PM, Bill Dentinger via Fot <fot at autox.team.net> wrote:
> 
> Amici...
> 
> My other passion in life is thoroughbred horse racing. 
> 
> During my thirty-five years of vintage racing, I never raced at VSCDA's Gingerman event, which also included their annual Driver's School.  My driving skills probably indicated I was missing out on those events.  Well, this was because the event fell on Kentucky Derby Day.  My racing partners, Don Brick and Bob Wismer, always ran Gingerman, but I never did. I love horse racing.  On one of my racing trips to Watkins Glen, we added the Lime Rock event and that brought us close enough that it also included a stop at Saratoga.  We went to Saratoga three days in a row.  For horse racing fans going to tracks like Saratoga is like going to a special Cathedral, or even the Vatican. 
> 
> I love horse racing.  Every year from October until the first Saturday in May, I will clock, study, and maintain data on all of the Triple Crown Prep Races preceding the Kentucky Derby.   I  used to have a mason contractor friend in Kitchner, Ontario, Canada, who bred and raced horses.  He even had bred and raced a filly who won the Queen's Plate Stakes (a very big deal up at Woodbine).  But I have no other formal horse racing connections.  I have never been an owner.  I am not a High Roller.  I am not even a frequent bettor.  Early in 2016 I moved from Wisconsin to Las Vegas so we would be closer to our oldest daughter and her husband.  I am literally surrounded by Casinos.  The nearest is SOUTH POINT, which has an outstanding, totally dedicated Race Book  for Dog and Horse racing.  Am I a frequent visitor?  Nope!  I'll go and bet the horses three or four times a year (mostly when we have guests in town who want to gamble).  But I do watch a lot of horse racing on TV, I also do a lot of handicapping, and I make a lot of pretend bets on paper.  That's the way I keep track of my ability, or sometimes lack there of. My wife likes my hobby.  She says it keeps me out of trouble, and she knows where I am.
> 
> Anyway, I have prepared some notes for the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby.  I do this every year for my family and close friends.  This year is an extremely competitive race, with a whole bunch of colts who all have a serious chance to win the roses.  If you are unaware, I believe NBC carries the race and depending upon where you live, Post Time is: 6:50/5:50/4:50/3:50 PM.  I am sure coverage probably starts an hour before Post Time.  If you would like to see a copy of my notes on the 144th Kentucky Derby, drop me an email OFF LIST, and I'll be glad to send you one (I've got my notes on an Excel Spread Sheet).
> 
> This is all meant to be JUST FOR FUN!  
> 
> Bill Dentinger
> 
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