Bill...
Crazy, stupid, or not...your background certainly gives your opinion
considerable weight on this subject. Since the mid-1970s I have been using a
PC to handicap horse races. However, I have little or no talent to use
'algorithms' (sp?) in my efforts. I just use a computer to apply the
traditional handicapping methods my dad taught me. I do not know if I got this
link correctly, but you may find this Bloomberg piece on the subject
interesting:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code
We were in Vegas years ago when this guy and his egg-head, math genius buddies
took on one of the casinos. Him with a hearing aid in his ear at the Blackjack
table, and his buddies up in a hotel room with their computers. Their system
generated all of the books on card counting, and of course, he eventually
became Persona non Grata in the casinos. This was back in the days when most
casinos were still dealing blackjack by hand, with a single deck. Even folks
with a two digit IQ can count cards in that game. Now they deal from
multi-deck shoes. But to me, today casinos telling known Card Counters..."You
can't play!" is like the NBA telling Lebron James, "You can't play. You're too
damn GOOD." The House demands an edge.
Bill Dentinger
-----Original Message-----
From: Bill <Bill at ponostyle.com>
To: JOE CURRY <spitlist at cox.net>
Cc: Bill via Fot <fot at autox.team.net>; Bill Dentinger <billdentin at aol.com>
Sent: Sat, May 5, 2018 9:04 am
Subject: Re: [Fot] 144th KENTUCKY DERBY
I?m crazy, but I?m not stupid. That?s impossible.
On May 5, 2018, at 8:21 AM, JOE CURRY <spitlist at cox.net> wrote:
If you could do that, then you could work on how to make money doing any form
of auto racing! :)
On May 4, 2018 at 11:16 PM Bill via Fot <fot at autox.team.net> wrote:
I started paying attention to horse racing and some other forms of gambling
when it became obvious to me that for some gambling forms there are enough data
points available to be predictive to a degree. I started looking at what would
be required to win frequently enough to make a profit after the house takes
their cut. I?d say it?s feasible and I?ve learned enough about machine learning
to think the process of picking and refining performance could be automated.
Let the software learn with fake bets until it?s steadily making a profit. Then
go live. You?d need a crew to place all the bets since the analysis needs to
run until a few minutes before a parimutuel race happens. If I wasn?t so lazy
I?d do this.
On May 3, 2018, at 9:12 PM, Bill Dentinger via Fot < fot at autox.team.net>
wrote:
Amici...
My other passion in life is thoroughbred horse racing.
During my thirty-five years of vintage racing, I never raced at VSCDA's
Gingerman event, which also included their annual Driver's School. My driving
skills probably indicated I was missing out on those events. Well, this was
because the event fell on Kentucky Derby Day. My racing partners, Don Brick
and Bob Wismer, always ran Gingerman, but I never did. I love horse racing. On
one of my racing trips to Watkins Glen, we added the Lime Rock event and that
brought us close enough that it also included a stop at Saratoga. We went to
Saratoga three days in a row. For horse racing fans going to tracks like
Saratoga is like going to a special Cathedral, or even the Vatican.
I love horse racing. Every year from October until the first Saturday in May,
I will clock, study, and maintain data on all of the Triple Crown Prep Races
preceding the Kentucky Derby. I used to have a mason contractor friend in
Kitchner, Ontario, Canada, who bred and raced horses. He even had bred and
raced a filly who won the Queen's Plate Stakes (a very big deal up at
Woodbine). But I have no other formal horse racing connections. I have never
been an owner. I am not a High Roller. I am not even a frequent bettor.
Early in 2016 I moved from Wisconsin to Las Vegas so we would be closer to our
oldest daughter and her husband. I am literally surrounded by Casinos. The
nearest is SOUTH POINT, which has an outstanding, totally dedicated Race Book
for Dog and Horse racing. Am I a frequent visitor? Nope! I'll go and bet the
horses three or four times a year (mostly when we have guests in town who want
to gamble). But I do watch a lot of horse racing on TV, I also do a lot of
handicapping, and I make a lot of pretend bets on paper. That's the way I keep
track of my ability, or sometimes lack there of. My wife likes my hobby. She
says it keeps me out of trouble, and she knows where I am.
Anyway, I have prepared some notes for the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby.
I do this every year for my family and close friends. This year is an
extremely competitive race, with a whole bunch of colts who all have a serious
chance to win the roses. If you are unaware, I believe NBC carries the race
and depending upon where you live, Post Time is: 6:50/5:50/4:50/3:50 PM. I am
sure coverage probably starts an hour before Post Time. If you would like to
see a copy of my notes on the 144th Kentucky Derby, drop me an email OFF LIST,
and I'll be glad to send you one (I've got my notes on an Excel Spread Sheet).
This is all meant to be JUST FOR FUN!
Bill Dentinger
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http://www.fot-racing.com
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