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Italy is experiencing what happens when there is a surge of patients =
that overwhelms the facilities that have to deal with them. Read this =
article from the Wall Street Journal.
Yes, Flatten the Curve
=
<https://www.wsj.com/articles/yes-flatten-the-curve-11584571566?emailToken=
=3Dc88fc14202045fe10c3c5f23e00da591tk9bWtzKEEOEm+N8VgtDUItbwMMzWA2cJrcff3c=
jz2BePIvZ8cEAosLA8TEa0BYP1JoiVUyiGqRes8QPSmJgEg%3D%3D&reflink=3Darticle_em=
ail_share>- Bill Rabel
Anacortes
Sheltering In Place with a Gin & Tonic at the moment
> On Mar 19, 2020, at 5:12 PM, Donald H Locker via Shop-talk =
<shop-talk@autox.team.net> wrote:
>=20
> But we know that Italy has good health care, as does Germany and the =
US. We are succumbing because the virus is more dangerous and has a =
mortality rate that exceeds that of influenza by a factor of 20x-40x. =
(China in general may not have the best of health everywhere, but Wuhan =
is a very modern, sophisticated, healthy city. Even there, the mortality =
rate was 4.6% (3130/67800 as of today) - that is HUGE by any measure. =
Italy's mortality rate is 8.3% (3405/41035); USA is at 1.5% (200/13680) =
as of 15 minutes ago.
>=20
> This is not a disease to take lightly from all the evidence.
>=20
> We'll be able to tell if we haven't taken adequate precautions because =
we will have a catastrophe. If we take adequate or more-than adequate =
precautions, we will have a nothingburger - that is the goal and we =
should all strive for it, IMO. The catastrophe scenario (1918 Flu, Flint =
water, Fukushima) is not one I wish on anyone.
>=20
> Donald.
>=20
> *Plain Text* email -- it's an accessibility issue
> () no proprietary attachments; no html mail
> /\ <https://www.georgedillon.com/web/html_email_is_evil.shtml>
>=20
> On 2020-03-19 6:31 p.m., eric--- via Shop-talk wrote:
>> I do appreciate everyone's comments here. I'm not trying to start a =
war or anything, and I will stop if no one wants to hear my side (just =
let me know)
>> But I'm guessing we all have some extra time on our hands now and =
this is a great way to stay in touch with others, without risk.
>> A few rebuttals,
>> Yes, they are saying that this seems to be more fatal then the flu, =
however, I believe there are 2 main reasons for that.
>> 1-where it started, china then moved to Iran. Both of these places =
have poor nutrition, poor medical care (and even poorer access to it.), =
and elderly populations. Italy also has poor medical care (albeit =
better than the other two.) So fatalities were higher than average =
modern populations.
>> 2-Then, there is most likely a vast populations (even in those areas) =
that got the virus, and shrugged it off as the flu, got better, and =
never reported it. So that means that you can track 100% of the =
fatalities, but you do not know how many 'sick but were fine' people you =
had. This will artificially inflate fatality statistics.
>> So, that is why it may SEEM to be worst. Next, comparing this to the =
Spanish flu is unfair as we have a way more advance medical machine =
worldwide now. Even if that flu hit today, there wouldn't be the same =
amount of deaths.
>> For my job. I have been living and breathing this stuff for almost =
two weeks. We are taking a in depth look at every aspect. The victims =
in our state all had other serious health issues. In fact the first =
person to die here had just about every major issue you can think of.
>> Is it sad people are dying? Yes. I am not trying to down play it. =
But these were all people that the flu most likely would have impacted =
as well. It doesn't make it any less tragic, but it does instill fear =
in the rest of the population for something they can't see the details =
on. People see a "number of fatalities" statistic. But they don't see =
the "aggravating factors for each person" facts.
>> My point is that the response may be way worst than the virus itself. =
Entire cities/states/countries shutting down. Livelihoods lost. People =
losing jobs, and means to support their families. Even with stimulus =
packages (that further reduce the dollars worth) business will be closed =
for good, jobs that don't come back. All because populations of people =
that were vulnerable to the flu or other viruses, contracted one called =
'covid-19.' If they contracted the regular flu and died, it would have =
been like any other year. I hate to sound so insensitive, but it is =
because I'm rooting for the whole society and what's best for the vast =
majority. (yes, I'm sure sounds like the plot to an original Star Trek =
episode.)
>> Populations are panicking, I hope we don't see riots for food and =
supplies as people are being bombarded with more and more fear mongering =
by the media. And yes, people choose their media,but the vast majority =
of people just watch one side of the 24h networks and have no idea how =
mis-informed they are. I can say without reservations that the people on =
this list are unequivocally in the 'better informed and educated' group, =
but go talk to the average person on the street if you want to see how =
mis-informed people are. A good test is to ask 100 people "who the =
speaker of the house is?" I'd be amaze if you got 10 correct answers =
(and if more than 20 people even had an educated guess.)
>> Even if it doesn't come to riots, the stress on people, the loss of =
educational opportunities (many college students may have to repeat =
classes or entire semesters, delaying their graduations.)
>> Or, if there is a REAL emergency that comes later, how many people =
will completely ignore it because covid-19 was a big nothing burger?
>> I'm not even going to go into my future prediction, as this is =
already enough of a bummer.
>> To leave on a positive note, it is awesome that most families are =
going to get to spend a ton of time together. It's great that we get =
time to pursue our passions and hobbies. It is also great that this is =
happening when we are entering spring and the weather is breaking.
>> Please feel free to comment, I will not respond unless asked to as I =
don't want this to drag out unless there is enough interest. This list =
has been a great resource for me for decades, and I respect each and =
ever one of you opinions and advice.
>> Now, I'm going back to look in the sofa cushions to see if I missed =
something. 8>)
>> "Be as beneficent as the sun or the sea, but if your rights as a =
rational being are trenched on, die on the first inch of your =
territory." Ralph Waldo Emerson
>> -Who is John Galt?
> _______________________________________________
>=20
> Shop-talk@autox.team.net
> Donate: http://www.team.net/donate.html
> Suggested annual donation $12.96
> Archive: http://www.team.net/pipermail/shop-talk =
http://autox.team.net/archive
>=20
> Unsubscribe/Manage: =
http://autox.team.net/mailman/options/shop-talk/brabel@comcast.net
>=20
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<html><head><meta http-equiv=3D"Content-Type" content=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Dus-ascii"></head><body style=3D"word-wrap: break-word; =
-webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=3D""><p =
class=3D"">Italy is experiencing what happens when there is a surge of =
patients that overwhelms the facilities that have to deal with them. =
Read this article from the Wall Street Journal.</p><a =
href=3D"https://www.wsj.com/articles/yes-flatten-the-curve-11584571566?ema=
ilToken=3Dc88fc14202045fe10c3c5f23e00da591tk9bWtzKEEOEm+N8VgtDUItbwMMzWA2c=
Jrcff3cjz2BePIvZ8cEAosLA8TEa0BYP1JoiVUyiGqRes8QPSmJgEg%3D%3D&reflink=3D=
article_email_share" class=3D""><p style=3D"font-family: Georgia; =
font-weight: bold;" class=3D"">Yes, Flatten the Curve</p></a><div =
class=3D"">- Bill Rabel</div><div class=3D""> Anacortes</div><div =
class=3D""> Sheltering In Place with a Gin & Tonic at the =
moment</div><div class=3D""><br =
class=3D"webkit-block-placeholder"></div><div><br class=3D""><blockquote =
type=3D"cite" class=3D""><div class=3D"">On Mar 19, 2020, at 5:12 PM, =
Donald H Locker via Shop-talk <<a =
href=3D"mailto:shop-talk@autox.team.net"; =
class=3D"">shop-talk@autox.team.net</a>> wrote:</div><br =
class=3D"Apple-interchange-newline"><div class=3D""><div class=3D"">But =
we know that Italy has good health care, as does Germany and the US. We =
are succumbing because the virus is more dangerous and has a mortality =
rate that exceeds that of influenza by a factor of 20x-40x. (China in =
general may not have the best of health everywhere, but Wuhan is a very =
modern, sophisticated, healthy city. Even there, the mortality rate was =
4.6% (3130/67800 as of today) - that is HUGE by any measure. Italy's =
mortality rate is 8.3% (3405/41035); USA is at 1.5% (200/13680) as of 15 =
minutes ago.<br class=3D""><br class=3D"">This is not a disease to take =
lightly from all the evidence.<br class=3D""><br class=3D"">We'll be =
able to tell if we haven't taken adequate precautions because we will =
have a catastrophe. If we take adequate or more-than adequate =
precautions, we will have a nothingburger - that is the goal and we =
should all strive for it, IMO. The catastrophe scenario (1918 Flu, Flint =
water, Fukushima) is not one I wish on anyone.<br class=3D""><br =
class=3D"">Donald.<br class=3D""><br class=3D"">*Plain Text* email -- =
it's an accessibility issue<br class=3D"">() no proprietary attachments; =
no html mail<br class=3D"">/\ <<a =
href=3D"https://www.georgedillon.com/web/html_email_is_evil.shtml"; =
class=3D"">https://www.georgedillon.com/web/html_email_is_evil.shtml</a>&g=
t;<br class=3D""><br class=3D"">On 2020-03-19 6:31 p.m., eric--- via =
Shop-talk wrote:<br class=3D""><blockquote type=3D"cite" class=3D"">I do =
appreciate everyone's comments here. I'm not trying to start a war =
or anything, and I will stop if no one wants to hear my side (just let =
me know)<br class=3D"">But I'm guessing we all have some extra time on =
our hands now and this is a great way to stay in touch with others, =
without risk.<br class=3D"">A few rebuttals,<br class=3D"">Yes, they are =
saying that this seems to be more fatal then the flu, however, I believe =
there are 2 main reasons for that.<br class=3D"">1-where it started, =
china then moved to Iran. Both of these places have poor =
nutrition, poor medical care (and even poorer access to it.), and =
elderly populations. Italy also has poor medical care (albeit =
better than the other two.) So fatalities were higher than average =
modern populations.<br class=3D"">2-Then, there is most likely a vast =
populations (even in those areas) that got the virus, and shrugged it =
off as the flu, got better, and never reported it. So that means =
that you can track 100% of the fatalities, but you do not know how many =
'sick but were fine' people you had. This will artificially =
inflate fatality statistics.<br class=3D"">So, that is why it may SEEM =
to be worst. Next, comparing this to the Spanish flu is unfair as we =
have a way more advance medical machine worldwide now. Even if =
that flu hit today, there wouldn't be the same amount of deaths.<br =
class=3D"">For my job. I have been living and breathing this stuff for =
almost two weeks. We are taking a in depth look at every aspect. =
The victims in our state all had other serious health issues. In =
fact the first person to die here had just about every major issue you =
can think of.<br class=3D"">Is it sad people are dying? Yes. I am not =
trying to down play it. But these were all people that the flu =
most likely would have impacted as well. It doesn't make it any =
less tragic, but it does instill fear in the rest of the population for =
something they can't see the details on. People see a "number of =
fatalities" statistic. But they don't see the "aggravating factors =
for each person" facts.<br class=3D"">My point is that the response may =
be way worst than the virus itself. Entire cities/states/countries =
shutting down. Livelihoods lost. People losing jobs, and =
means to support their families. Even with stimulus packages (that =
further reduce the dollars worth) business will be closed for good, jobs =
that don't come back. All because populations of people that were =
vulnerable to the flu or other viruses, contracted one called =
'covid-19.' If they contracted the regular flu and died, it would =
have been like any other year. I hate to sound so insensitive, but it is =
because I'm rooting for the whole society and what's best for the vast =
majority. (yes, I'm sure sounds like the plot to an original Star Trek =
episode.)<br class=3D"">Populations are panicking, I hope we don't see =
riots for food and supplies as people are being bombarded with more and =
more fear mongering by the media. And yes, people choose their media,but =
the vast majority of people just watch one side of the 24h networks and =
have no idea how mis-informed they are. I can say without reservations =
that the people on this list are unequivocally in the 'better informed =
and educated' group, but go talk to the average person on the street if =
you want to see how mis-informed people are. A good test is to ask 100 =
people "who the speaker of the house is?" I'd be amaze if you got =
10 correct answers (and if more than 20 people even had an educated =
guess.)<br class=3D"">Even if it doesn't come to riots, the stress on =
people, the loss of educational opportunities (many college students may =
have to repeat classes or entire semesters, delaying their =
graduations.)<br class=3D"">Or, if there is a REAL emergency that comes =
later, how many people will completely ignore it because covid-19 was a =
big nothing burger?<br class=3D"">I'm not even going to go into my =
future prediction, as this is already enough of a bummer.<br class=3D"">To=
leave on a positive note, it is awesome that most families are going to =
get to spend a ton of time together. It's great that we get time =
to pursue our passions and hobbies. It is also great that this is =
happening when we are entering spring and the weather is breaking.<br =
class=3D"">Please feel free to comment, I will not respond unless asked =
to as I don't want this to drag out unless there is enough interest. =
This list has been a great resource for me for decades, and I =
respect each and ever one of you opinions and advice.<br class=3D"">Now, =
I'm going back to look in the sofa cushions to see if I missed =
something. 8>)<br class=3D"">"Be as beneficent as the sun or =
the sea, but if your rights as a rational being are trenched on, die on =
the first inch of your territory." Ralph Waldo Emerson<br class=3D"">-Who =
is John Galt?<br =
class=3D""></blockquote>_______________________________________________<br=
class=3D""><br class=3D""><a href=3D"mailto:Shop-talk@autox.team.net"; =
class=3D"">Shop-talk@autox.team.net</a><br class=3D"">Donate: =
$12.96<br class=3D"">Archive: =
http://www.team.net/pipermail/shop-talk http://autox.team.net/archive<br =
class=3D""><br class=3D"">Unsubscribe/Manage: =
http://autox.team.net/mailman/options/shop-talk/brabel@comcast.net<br =
class=3D""><br class=3D""></div></div></blockquote></div><br =
class=3D""></body></html>=
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Shop-talk@autox.team.net
Archive: http://www.team.net/pipermail/shop-talk http://autox.team.net/archive
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