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Re: [Fot] Stations of yesteryear

To: "John Hasty" <jhhasty@gdhs.com>, "Michael Porter" <mdporter@dfn.com>
Subject: Re: [Fot] Stations of yesteryear
From: "Bill Tobin" <william.tobin31@verizon.net>
Date: Sat, 30 Mar 2013 18:37:12 -0400
Cc: fot@autox.team.net
Delivered-to: mharc@autox.team.net
Delivered-to: fot@autox.team.net
References: <163bf.14006f3c.3e87470b@aol.com> <5156029D.5000601@dfn.com> <607A04D6-C8FC-454C-8191-046120018014@gdhs.com>
Sorry, can't resist.
My investments, which took a major fatty TWICE under Dubya, have come back 
and then some under President Obama.
And your grandchildren will still be paying for his clusterf**k in Iraq. 
When I hear him (Obama) referred to as "That N....r" my blood boils. And I 
heard it recently.
Just as Dubya (he called himself that) was my president, Obama is indeed 
your president. Live with it.
End of rant.  Original Message ----- 
From: "John Hasty" <jhhasty@gdhs.com>
To: "Michael Porter" <mdporter@dfn.com>
Cc: <fot@autox.team.net>
Sent: Friday, March 29, 2013 6:04 PM
Subject: Re: [Fot] Stations of yesteryear


> Don't forget what Obama and his fellow travelers are doing to our country,
> we'll be lucky if any of us can afford gas at all if they continue down 
> the
> road to bankruptcy.
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
> On Mar 29, 2013, at 5:07 PM, Michael Porter <mdporter@dfn.com> wrote:
>
>> On 3/29/2013 1:35 PM, BillDentin@aol.com wrote:
>>> In a message dated 03/29/2013 12:28:21 PM Central Standard Time,
>>> kaskastner@gmail.com writes:
>>>
>>>
>>>> Remember also that the US was paying the arabs $5 buck for a barrel of
>>>> oil, not $91. (although I guess the amount are the same with the
> inflation)
>>>>
>>> Kas...
>>>
>>> Interesting observation, and if my high school 'ratio' math still works,
> if
>>> it was .299 a gallon for gas when oil was $5.00 a barrel, shouldn't we
>>> expect to pay $5.442 now?  I just filled my tank for $3.799 a gallon. 
>>> All
>>> things being relative...maybe we should not be complaining.
>>>
>>>
>>
>> The problem is, as usual, more complicated than that.  First, if one is
> looking for a standard of measurement based on inflation and the cost of a
> barrel of oil, then one has to exclude changes in federal, state and local
> taxes.  Then one has to get the actual numbers more or less in line with 
> the
> reality of the time frame, and then do some data smoothing to eliminate 
> the
> peaks created by temporary shortages (the 1973 and 1978 embargoes and 
> withheld
> shipments, for example) and oil prices affected by predatory speculation 
> (such
> as the $147/bbl spike recently).  You get something like this:
>>
>> http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Gasoline_Inflation.asp
>>
>> If we're talking about prices being affected in large part by Saudi 
>> Arabia,
> it's important to get the numbers in the timeline correct, because the
> establishment of OPEC price controls after 1973 changed the pricing 
> schedules
> considerably.  Saudi oil was routinely purchased by the refiners for a
> wellhead price before shipping of $1.50/bbl, until the 1973 embargo. 
> Within
> six weeks of the beginning of the partial embargo by SA, that price was
> $6/bbl, and within four months, was $10/bbl. That alone is a 660% increase 
> in
> the crude price in less than half a year.  At the beginning of the 
> embargo,
> gas prices jumped from a nominal $.30/gal to $.60/gal, and stabilized in 
> the
> low .50s/gal until the 1978 oil shock, where the price increased to ~ 
> $2.25,
> adjusted for inflation.
>>
>> Finally, one needs to look at crack differentials (price of all refined
> products combined per bbl of feedstock vs. crude oil feedstock price per 
> bbl),
> which have been rising and, as well, understand that the NYMEX and London 
> spot
> prices are more an indication of crude price trends in the market, rather 
> than
> an actual current price paid by the majors, all of which tend to lock in
> production rates and prices for extended periods at prices lower than the 
> spot
> market.  Going by crack differentials, the gross profits of the majors and
> inflation-adjusted pricing, gas prices are currently quite a bit higher 
> than
> the historical average.
>>
>>
>> Cheers.
>>
>> --
>>
>>
>> Michael Porter
>> Roswell, NM
>>
>>
>> Never let anyone drive you crazy when you know it's within walking
> distance....
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>>
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