These numbers show that last year, all modified and prepared classes, with
the exception of CP, where hovering around the 17-driver limit, and so were
the top two street prepared classes. As far as I am concerned, all these
classes are on the "bubble". What this means is that they are at the risk
of declining further as potential new class members shy away with an eye on
Rule 4.9 and the uncertainties it generates. This could lead to major rule
changes, restructuring, combining of classes, all the way to the
elimination of some of them, turning Rule 4.9 into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Granted, the situation has improved this year and most of the classes
listed above had higher entries at the 2009 Nationals, although some had
only marginally higher entry levels. I am sure that the new site and the
excitement that acres and acres of concrete in Lincoln generated had
something to to with. This is definitely a good thing, and I certainly hope
that this trend will continue, but you never know. Trends can turn around
pretty quick, and anybody thinking that a class may be safe because it drew
more than 17 competitors this year may be fooling themselves. Examples for
how fast entry numbers can drop are EM, which had 27 entries in 2007, but
only 18 in 2008, barely above the magic number 17. An even more extreme
example is SM2, which had 35 drivers in 2005, but only 16 twelve months
later in 2006.
While some people look at 17 as the critical number, many others get
concerned about numbers in the low to mid-twenties. Building and developing
a car for quite a few of the classes listed above takes significant time,
possibly quite a bit more than the three years that is written into Rule
4.9 (which, by the way, was two years until the SEB changed it early last
year, which was a positive change, but not enough), and people considering
to join such classes may wonder if the class will still be around when they
have the car ready, at least in its current configuration. This creates an
environment that counters growth and keeps people from joining the
lower-subscribed classes, again, turning Rule 4.9 into a self-fulfilling
prophecy. This is exactly the opposite of what we need.
I believe I speak for a large part of the membership when I say that we
want rule stability. I ran stock classes for several years, where just one
new car put into your class can turn everything upside down and force
people to purchase a new car if one wants to stay competitive. Ever since I
started autocrossing, I viewed the rules for the prepared and modified
classes as the most stable ones, which was one of the attractions when I
purchased my current car. Maybe that was an incorrect perception of mine,
but, for example, I don't recall CM ever changing since I started
autocrossing. That is something stock class entrants can only dream about.
However, I see Rule 4.9 as a threat to rule stability. It creates
uncertainty, and once a class drops below the 17-car count at Nationals,
the elimination of a class may just be around the corner. When that
happens, the cars running that class could all of the sudden be worth only
a fraction of what they were worth with the class in place. This is the
last thing the people amongst us, who had to work hard for the money to buy
or build their cars, which includes me, want to see.
As you may have noticed by now, I don't like Rule 4.9, and I want to see it
gone. By no means am I promoting 5-car classes at nationals. No, I want to
see well-populated classes, but based on where a lot of the faster classes
are at, that is difficult to achieve with Rule 4.9 in effect. The SEB needs
to create a rule-set and an environment that encourage growth, not an
environment that can lead to the elimination of entire categories of
classes. By now, I have talked to a large number of people about Rule 4.9,
and I have not come across a single person who told me that Rule 4.9 was a
good idea. Everybody, including the two who did not want to put the Rule
4.9 stickers on their cars, acknowledged that this rule was less than ideal.
to be continued....
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