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Re: SM2 at Topeka

To: mattm@optonline.net
Subject: Re: SM2 at Topeka
From: "Jeff Winchell" <Jeff@winchell.com>
Date: Wed, 07 Aug 2002 19:24:19 -0700 (PDT)
bthatch@juno.com wrote:
I just noticed that we have 15 drivers in SM2 at this point. The interesting 
thing is that
only 8 regular EM entries show up, so far. So, which class is struggling for 
survival?

***

Jeff@winchell.com replied:
<BG>

SM and SM2 will draw drivers many classes that aren't serving the SM/SM2 
audience. ESP,
BP, CP, EM, DSP, CSP are being affected... at least in terms of quantity. 
Though the top
quality cars/drivers in those classes will still be there because most don't 
want to take
the chance on the unknown results of entering a car in SM or SM2.

Though the championship in Topeka is an anomaly. Class entry numbers are 
heavily biased
towards what's popular in the midwest, and the ability to find good competition 
in classes
that normally have *very* few entrants locally.

****

Mattm@optonline.net responded:
CP?!? Huh? I think they have 51 entered in the open class and 16
in CPL. Seems healthy to me.  :^) What is sad is A Stock being
decimated down to fourteen, considering when I used to run, there
were nearly 40 entries. Even H Stock has 21.

******
CP is healthy if you like to party and live in the midwest. If you live 
elsewhere or if
you're more interested in building top cars and top driving skills, it's not.

% of National Tour and National Championship entrants who are in MWDiv, 
SWDiv,CenDiv:

  CLASS          MIDWEST        CNT
  BPL               0.00          1
  CML               0.00          3
  DML               0.00          1
  EML               0.00          2
  EPL               0.00          2
  F125L             0.00          2
  FML               0.00          2
  FSPL             14.29          7
  ASL              16.67          6
  DSP              18.75         48
  SSL              18.75         16
  DM               20.00         15
  DPL              20.00          5
  HS               20.93         43
  CSL              21.05         19
  GSL              22.22          9
  SS               22.62         84
  ASP              23.40         47
  AS               23.53         34
  EP               23.81         21
  FSP              24.39         41
  CSPL             25.00          8
  ESL              27.27         11
  STS              27.40         73
  GS               27.63         76
  CSP              28.57         49
  AM               29.41         17
  BSPL             30.00         10
  ES               31.75         63
  BML              33.33          3
  DS               33.33         60
  DSPL             33.33          3
  EM               33.33         18
  FSL              33.33          9
  STX              33.33         18
  ESP              34.04         47
  DP               35.00         20
  SM               36.05         86
  SML              36.36         11
  FS               36.84         57
  BSP              38.24         34
  BP               40.00         10
  HSL              40.00          5
  ASPL             42.86          7
  CS               44.05         84
  DSL              46.15         13
  FM               46.15         26
  STSL             46.15         13
  FP               47.37         19
  CM               48.48         33
  APL              50.00          2
  BM               50.00         20
  BS               50.00         74
  F125             52.63         19
  CP               53.33         60
  SM2              56.52         23
  BSL              57.14          7
  AP               60.00          5
  CPL              64.29         14
  SM2L             66.67          3
  ESPL             75.00          4
  FPL             100.00          1

Generally, the best entries are from folks who go to ProSolos, National Tours, 
and
Divisionals. Of all nationals entrants this year, here's the class rankings in 
terms of %
who've entered an NT, Divisional or Pro this year:

  Class           % Competed     Entries at Nationals
  APL                 0          2
  F125L               0          1
  FSPL                0          3
  ASL                33          6
  DM                 44          9
  GSL                50          6
  SM2                50         12
  SM2L               50          2
  SML                50          6
  CPL                54         13
  CP                 55         51
  FSL                57          7
  DSP                60         15
  BM                 62         13
  EM                 63          8
  SM                 63         27
  AP                 67          6
  BML                67          3
  BP                 67          3
  DSL                67          9
  FS                 67         27
  SSL                67          6
  FSP                71         21
  HS                 71         21
  STSL               71          7
  BS                 72         36
  SS                 72         36
  BSL                75          4
  CSPL               75          4
  DPL                75          4
  HSL                75          4
  FM                 79         14
  BSP                80         15
  F125               80         15
  AM                 83         12
  ES                 83         36
  STS                83         23
  DS                 87         23
  STX                88          8
  DP                 89          9
  ESL                89          9
  ESP                89         19
  CS                 91         34
  GS                 92         26
  AS                 93         14
  CSP                95         20
  CM                 96         25
  ASPL              100          4
  BSPL              100          5
  CML               100          1
  CSL               100          9
  DSPL              100          2
  EP                100          9
  EPL               100          3
  ESPL              100          2
  FML               100          1
  FP                100          6
  FPL               100          1

To cut CP some slack and likely drop the party first, compete maybe crowd, I 
tried
dropping the people who didn't compete in a Divisional, Tour or Pro this year 
and I also
dropped the ladies classes. Then I computed the classes avg PAX result based on 
the
entants BEST performances at a big event. With that method only two poorly 
subscribed
Mod/Prep classes, and the two brand new to nationals classes are expected to 
perform worse
than CP.

  CLASS                 PAX        CNT
  BP                 87.098          2
  FP                 87.927          6
  ESP                88.097         17
  AS                 88.231         13
  BSP                88.485         12
  FS                 88.620         18
  DSP                88.904          9
  ES                 88.955         30
  GS                 89.144         24
  DS                 89.225         20
  SM                 89.270         17
  BM                 89.327          8
  HS                 89.334         15
  STS                89.525         19
  CSP                89.582         19
  BS                 89.665         26
  CS                 89.750         31
  FM                 89.770         11
  SS                 89.826         26
  F125               89.980         12
  AM                 90.533         10
  CM                 90.657         24
  EP                 91.026          9
  EM                 91.211          5
  FSP                91.338         15
  AP                 91.440          4
  CP                 91.877         28
  STX                91.882          7
  DM                 92.832          4
  DP                 93.264          8
  SM2                93.413          6

Need to cut CP some more slack? Let's look at those expected to trophy in class 
and see
what they're avg PAX time is expected to be:

  CLASS                 PAX        CNT
  F125               86.448          6
  AM                 86.761          6
  BSP                86.843         10
  ES                 87.016         19
  SS                 87.024         23
  FM                 87.215          9
  ASP                87.224         12
  FP                 87.239          6
  AS                 87.240         12
  DP                 87.260          6
  ESP                87.279         13
  HS                 87.295         15
  CS                 87.436         22
  DS                 87.440         16
  FS                 87.464         16
  GS                 87.506         22
  CSP                87.580         15
  BM                 87.815          7
  STS                87.875         22
  FSP                87.919         13
  SM                 88.153         24
  BP                 88.214          3
  BS                 88.353         24
  DSP                88.396         13
  CM                 88.444         11
  CP                 88.742         17
  EM                 89.001          6
  EP                 89.131          8
  DM                 89.538          6
  STX                90.072          7
  AP                 90.397          3
  SM2                91.323          8

If numbers are important, I'd rather see the important numbers be the times 
being run, not
number of Topeka entrants. (Unless I'm a Tequilla distributor<s>).

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