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Re: Statistics and their abuse (was M3)

To: Autox@autox.team.net
Subject: Re: Statistics and their abuse (was M3)
From: "Jeff Winchell" <Jeff@Winchell.Com>
Date: Fri, 26 May 2000 09:38:47 -0700
> >There was another group of classes that included SS cars (P2 and P3). So the
> >SS class placement isn't a valid comparison.
> 
> But you took the time to point out that Jerry was the 1999 SS Champion.

Yes. I took a lot of time to compile a lot of information. I don't pretend to 
100% fallability and I cross check things, and ask other people to look 
at things, and the analysis improves.

> Why did you not mention that the top dogs were in the Pro series?

No particular reason. Plus not all of them were. Some didn't compete in 
ProSeries because there wasn't a suitable class for them. I also don't 
know the history of the ProSolo to give a lot of detailed explanations 
about every class and the value of a win there. I have gotten some 
feedback from other drivers that has helped.

>You also failed to mention that I was the '99 ProSolo CSP National
> Championship Runnerup according to the year end points flyer I got

I didn't see that. I wasn't looking for 2nd place ProSolo people because I 
only had the rule book that showed the winners. I did know I could find 
trophy winners from the past 3 years at Nationals and am looking into 
getting much more complete stats from the people that compile such 
things.

> Oh, we just get to arbitrarily throw out competitors' times?  Even
> accepting that (and the fact that the PAX is flawed), Jerry has slowed
> down by 1.35%.  My gains in Pro's over him, during the same time period,
> have been 1.09%.

The 1.09% is calculated how?

> >Given that it was a borrowed car, I threw out that data point.
> 
> Again, we just throw out the datapoints that we don't like?

No, as I said, I think it shows even stronger that you've improved more 
over Jerry, but the case is harder to make, so I dropped it.

> >I don't know much about the Houston Region except that the large number of
> >ESP entrants makes it much more likely the person had more competition. 
> 
> Well let's see which stock classes beat Mr. Dorchester at those events:
> 
> 1st Event: SS, AS, BS, CS, GS
> 2nd Event: SS, AS, BS, ES, FS, GS, HS
> 3rd Event: SS, AS, CS, FS
> 4th Event: SS, AS, BS, CS
> 5th Event: SS, AS, BS, CS

He lost every ESP race too. The point was he beat so many ESP 
drivers. I wouldn't be surprised to do the research to find out that most 
non-1st place SP drivers in a local region do worse than stock winners 
in that local region.

> My point still stands, you cannot just drop Joe Blow into an M3 and have
> him trophy at National events due to the car.

I agree with that.

> Since you like to crunch numbers, how about doing this?  Go to the
> recent Topeka Nats results, and show the average finishing position
> based on car type.  I'd like to know if the Mustangs were competitive in
> ESP even before the M3 came to town.

Howard Duncan took 4th place last year. John Ames took 1st the year 
before (and MANY times before). I don't see how focusing on the 
Mustangs in particular is useful. This is a case of ponycars, not just 
Mustangs. Personally I don't feel the Mustangs can't compete with F-
Bodies though there are clearly more F-Body drivers at nationals than 
Mustang drivers. That's fine with me.  



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